At the beginning of 2012 the gold price had increased on
an annual basis in each year for a decade. What is the forecast for the
gold price 2013 and beyond? Will the 10-year upwards trend of the gold
price continue in 2013? A majority of gold investors views gold more as an insurance or store
of value than as a means of speculation. These investors therefore
regularly take a longer-term view on gold as an investment. What trend
of the gold price can we expect in 2013 and for the following years?
Gold price forecasts will never be completely accurate, but we collected
some information on the key drivers influencing the gold price and
analysts’ gold price forecasts for 2013.
If we see history gold has provided
16.91 % annualized return over the past 10 years. In last 5 years since
2008 the gold prices have risen nearly 125% (Rs. 12500/- to Rs. 28000/-)
making a strong case for having it in your portfolio. The percentage
allocation to gold should depend on an investor’s risk and return
objectives.
Before talking about future return of
gold let us look at historical graph given below which shows gold has
given continuous appreciation over the decades.
This is because “As fewer and fewer
people have confidence in paper money as store of value, the price of
gold will continue to rise.”
You might have following question in your mind.
Gold, the shining yellow metal has
proven to be a safe haven investment option for everyone not only
because of it being a hedge against inflation, but also due to gold
investments have historically shown a low correlation with investments
in other asset classes such as stocks or shares, mutual funds,
government and corporate bonds and even commodities and other precious
metals.
The gold price forecast trend chart is as shown in the chart below for the years 2011 to 2016.
Do note that I have used one data point per year. That is the data is the average price for the year. This allows me to carry out gold price trend analysis with easy. You can can use once a month data but you will have at least 120 points on your chart.
Do note that I have used one data point per year. That is the data is the average price for the year. This allows me to carry out gold price trend analysis with easy. You can can use once a month data but you will have at least 120 points on your chart.
Like all other commodity Gold price are also driven by basic rule of
supply and demand. Demand of gold is categorized mostly in four sector
i.e Reserve bank (central bank), jewelry, industrial & investment.
In most of country reserve bank is
adopting approach to buying gold continuously, we hope this trend will
be continue in 2013 and beyond. Over the last decade jewelry demand
for gold decreased in relation to demand from other sectors, mainly the
investment sector. High gold prices and economic uncertainties will
likely keep gold demand from jewelry moderate in 2013. Besides jewelry, we have seen major
boost of adopting gold as investment this may be due to availability of
various investment options like Gold ETF, Paper Gold etc. This
investment boost is likely to continue.
Industrial demand for gold in 2011 was 10% of total demand and due to higher price demand in this sector likely to get reduced.
Other governing factor for gold price in 2013 and beyond will be global
financial situation. Global financial situation is not so good today,
level of debt taken by western countries are not sustainable. They are
trying hard to improve financial situation either by taking more debt or
by reducing current debts. Eventually this situation is causing
significant rise in inflation rates & rise in value of western
currencies.
Gold price forecasts 2013:-
Some forecast may seem to be speculations but one thing is for sure that from here gold price are intended to appreciate more. This may be due to economic uncertainties, unfortunately the global financial problems are not yet sorted out, you might have heard about bad financial situation about Europe and other western countries. This may cause gold price to rise further.
In the long run, the gold price has to
go up in relation to paper money, there is no other way. To what price,
that depends on the scale of the inflation – and we know that inflation
will continue.
Forecast by
|
Forecasted Gold Rate in Ounce
|
Converted Rate per
10 gm in Rs/- |
Year
|
BNP Paribas |
2280 $ | 38635 Rs/- | 2013 |
Thomson Reuters GFMS |
2000 $ | 33890 Rs/- | 2013 |
Morgan Stanley |
2175 $ | 36856 Rs/- | 2013 |
Newmont Mining |
2500 $ | 42363 Rs/- | 2013 |
Standard Chartered |
2000 $ | 33890 Rs/- | 2013 |
Standard Chartered |
2107 $ | 35703 Rs/- | 2014 |
Some forecast may seem to be speculations but one thing is for sure that from here gold price are intended to appreciate more. This may be due to economic uncertainties, unfortunately the global financial problems are not yet sorted out, you might have heard about bad financial situation about Europe and other western countries. This may cause gold price to rise further.
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