European economy continues to impact ocean volumes

A confluence of ongoing events, including the debt crisis hitting exports, domestic sales and consumer confidence and imports, which have added to declining trade volumes, has led to a recession being formally declared in the European Union, according to the most recent edition of the Global Port Tracker report from Hackett Associates and the Bremen Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics.
On the European side, things have slowed down dramatically,” Hackett told LM in a recent interview. “There is a lack of confidence [as noted in economic metrics] and GDP is down and sales are weak. It is clear that there is a slowdown. And nothing has really been done to solve the key issues like the Euro crisis and sovereign debt crisis, so the next 12 months are going to be critical.” Should the situation in Europe continue to worsen, it could have a trickle down effect on the United States economy, too, in the form of lower consumer confidence, Hackett explained. This would likely lead to a higher personal savings rate in the U.S. with the after effect being lower trade levels, with the warning signs on the economy intact.
“Last month eurozone consumer and business confidence fell for the fourth straight month, weakening significantly in France, Germany, Finland, and Austria,” said Ben Hackett, president of Hackett Associates, in the report.
These comments are not surprising, considering how long the European economy has been in decline, coupled with the fact that in last month’s report Hackett explained that the consumer confidence index as measured by the EU Commission continues to decline. The index, he said, is now dangerously low compared to its long term trend, with the exception of the 2009 recession.

Trading Gold Commodity Futures

Many investors are turning to trading gold commodity futures in order to get away from dependence on the stock market. This gives investors another option when it comes to investing and it also presents them with a unique opportunity. Here are the basics of trading gold gold commodity futures and how the process works.

Why Gold?

If you choose to get involved in the futures market, there are many different commodities and precious metals that you could potentially trade. You might be wondering why you would interested in trading gold commodity futures.
Gold is one of the most sought after precious metals in the world today. It has a timeless value to it that everyone in the world appreciates. Many people like to invest in gold because it is a hedge against inflation. Even if the value of the dollar goes down, the value of gold will remain constant or increase in most cases. Many people like to invest in gold because it moves independently of the stock market, the bond market, and the economy as a whole. It is essentially a universal currency that every culture values to some degree. This means that even if your stock portfolio is not performing well, you can still be making a killing with your gold futures contracts.

Futures Contracts

In order to get involved in the futures market, it is important to understand exactly what a futures contract is. When you enter into a futures contract, you are essentially buying or selling a commodity at a given price at a future date. For example, you will agree to buy a certain amount of gold at a date in the future at a specific price. Then, if the value of gold increases significantly before that date, you have a very valuable contract. You can still buy the gold at the cheaper price that you agreed on in your futures contracts. You can then sell gold at the higher market price. Instead of going through that process, you can also just sell your futures contracts to someone else for a profit.

Trading Gold Commodity Futures

In the past, trading futures contracts was extremely difficult for the average trader. You had to be able to have access to the futures market and a futures broker to place your trades for you. In today's world, it is much easier to get involved. You will still have to open an account with a futures broker. However, now you can access the market through a real-time trading platform on your computer.
You will download a piece of software onto your desktop and it will allow you to trade futures contracts in real-time. This way, you can look at a price chart for gold and make a decision as to whether you want to buy or sell. Then, you can simply place an order and it will be filled as quickly as possible through your futures broker.

The Best Way to Find Real Estate Leads for Your Business

Do you know how to find real estate leads for your real estate investing business? If not, you better take the time to start developing and implementing a strategy right now. Lead generation is the engine that powers your investing business. Without an efficient, functioning engine your real estate investing career will stall and fail before you ever get out of the driveway.

2. The Most Efficient Way to Generate Real Estate Leads

Perhaps the most efficient ways to find real estate leads, are unfortunately, also the most expensive strategies. These lead generation strategies, which still require a great deal of skill, include direct mail, classified ads, pay per click advertising, websites, signs and other marketing materials promoting your business. Unless you are different than most individuals beginning a career investing in real estate, you probably don’t have a big budget to throw at marketing. But forget about handing over your hard-earned money to some marketing guru, I’ve got a sure-fire plan that runs on a shoestring budget.

2. The Most Efficient Way to Generate Real Estate Leads

Perhaps the most efficient ways to find real estate leads, are unfortunately, also the most expensive strategies. These lead generation strategies, which still require a great deal of skill, include direct mail, classified ads, pay per click advertising, websites, signs and other marketing materials promoting your business. Unless you are different than most individuals beginning a career investing in real estate, you probably don’t have a big budget to throw at marketing. But forget about handing over your hard-earned money to some marketing guru, I’ve got a sure-fire plan that runs on a shoestring budget.

3. The Best Way to Generate Real Estate Leads

The absolute best way to not only find leads but to also find the exact kind of real estate leads you need to succeed as a real estate investor long-term requires less skill and less money than anything mentioned previously. Here’s the catch. It is also the slowest, takes the most commitment and requires patience. But when you do begin to implement and work this strategy, your lead generation engine will be running like a finely-tuned sports car. To become a successful real estate investor, you need to have a lead generation database and a large network that includes other investors, tenants, bird-dogs, people you’ve done deals with, and just about anyone and everyone you meet or know.

China's economy shows signs of modest recovery

The Chinese economy was deluged with promising news Friday after officials released October data that showed consumer price inflation slowing to its weakest pace in three years and industrial production and investment stabilizing.
The positive indicators come days before China unveils its new Communist Party rulers during a once-a-decade power transition. The country’s previously overheated economy has slowed for seven consecutive quarters, heightening pressure on the central government to expedite badly needed reforms. “What a lovely dataset to welcome in China’s new set of leaders,” said Alistair Thornton, an analyst for IHS Global Insight in Beijing. “The stabilization looks to be on firmer ground."
China’s consumer prices grew 1.7% in October from a year earlier, down from 1.9% growth in September. Analysts credited rising food production for the tapering prices. Declining inflation gives policymakers more room to ease bank lending if necessary.
“Although inflation will start to creep back up in the coming months, the outlook remains benign and should leave enough room for Beijing to maintain its current easing bias to consolidate China’s growth recovery,” said Qu Hongbin, an economist for HSBC.
Thornton echoed consensus among analysts that China would begin a modest recovery because of efforts over the summer to launch new public works projects and release liquidity in the banking system.
“The bottom line is that the economy remains very sluggish, although the good news is that there’s surely not a huge amount more slowdown to come,” Thornton said.
“Although inflation will start to creep back up in the coming months, the outlook remains benign and should leave enough room for Beijing to maintain its current easing bias to consolidate China’s growth recovery,” said Qu Hongbin, an economist for HSBC.
Industrial production grew 9.6% year-on-year in October, up from 9.2% growth in September.
Meanwhile, fixed asset investment, a gauge of construction in urban China, grew 20.7% from January to October compared with the same period a year ago. That was a tick above the 20.5% growth between January and September.

Bill Cara's Blog for Nov 8, 2012

he S&P 500 dropped 2.4% following the election. There is a lot of handwringing now about the fiscal cliff, but the market could be bottoming any day now. Gold held its own with many miners making gains on the day. Gold often bottoms before stocks so that is a good sign for the equity market especially because it has been rallying as the US Dollar shows strength.
Last Friday I posted the following chart noting that risk assets would decline should the dollar continue to rally:

Here is that chart updated with the Dollar rallying over that resistance:

The US Dollar is up again this morning but that rally is getting long in the tooth. I think Gold is sniffing out a top in the Dollar. Once the Dollar's short-term top is in, gold and stocks will rally and I think Gold should rally hard considering that it has been swimming upstream the last few days - once it is going with the current it will be much easier.
Gold's chart continues to improve but could not close over the resistance line. I believe that it is only a matter of time and the Dollar finding a top.
Gold:

Stocks still need a little work. There was a lot of buying during yesterday's drop so I think we could see one more whoosh lower to mark the low or a slow day or two and then a move higher.
Stocks:

That was quite a selloff in oil yesterday. We could be getting close to a low there as well so be looking at energy names now.
Oil:

Now is not the time to be embracing fear, but the time to be getting your shopping list in order. We did that with Gold and it is working well so far. There are a lot of great stocks on sale and they may be cheaper in the next few days but I think we are close to shopping season.

adsense Golds prices trends, forecast, and prospects 2013

At the beginning of 2012 the gold price had increased on an annual basis in each year for a decade. What is the forecast for the gold price 2013 and beyond? Will the 10-year upwards trend of the gold price continue in 2013? A majority of gold investors views gold more as an insurance or store of value than as a means of speculation. These investors therefore regularly take a longer-term view on gold as an investment. What trend of the gold price can we expect in 2013 and for the following years? Gold price forecasts will never be completely accurate, but we collected some information on the key drivers influencing the gold price and analysts’ gold price forecasts for 2013.

If we see history gold has provided 16.91 % annualized return over the past 10 years. In last 5 years since 2008 the gold prices have risen nearly 125% (Rs. 12500/- to Rs. 28000/-) making a strong case for having it in your portfolio. The percentage allocation to gold should depend on an investor’s risk and return objectives.

Before talking about future return of gold let us look at historical graph given below which shows gold has given continuous appreciation over the decades.

This is because “As fewer and fewer people have confidence in paper money as store of value, the price of gold will continue to rise.”

You might have following question in your mind.

Gold, the shining yellow metal has proven to be a safe haven investment option for everyone not only because of it being a hedge against inflation, but also due to gold investments have historically shown a low correlation with investments in other asset classes such as stocks or shares, mutual funds, government and corporate bonds and even commodities and other precious metals.

  

The gold price forecast trend chart is as shown in the chart below for the years 2011 to 2016.

Do note that I have used one data point per year. That is the data is the average price for the year. This allows me to carry out gold price trend analysis with easy. You can can use once a month data but you will have at least 120 points on your chart.

Like all other commodity Gold price are also driven by basic rule of supply and demand. Demand of gold is categorized mostly in four sector i.e Reserve bank (central bank), jewelry, industrial & investment.

In most of country reserve bank is adopting approach to buying gold continuously, we hope this trend will be continue in 2013 and beyond. Over the last decade jewelry demand for gold decreased in relation to demand from other sectors, mainly the investment sector. High gold prices and economic uncertainties will likely keep gold demand from jewelry moderate in 2013. Besides jewelry, we have seen major boost of adopting gold as investment this may be due to availability of various investment options like Gold ETF, Paper Gold etc. This investment boost is likely to continue.

Industrial demand for gold in 2011 was 10% of total demand and due to higher price demand in this sector likely to get reduced.

Other governing factor for gold price in 2013 and beyond will be global financial situation. Global financial situation is not so good today, level of debt taken by western countries are not sustainable. They are trying hard to improve financial situation either by taking more debt or by reducing current debts. Eventually this situation is causing significant rise in inflation rates & rise in value of western currencies.

In the long run, the gold price has to go up in relation to paper money, there is no other way. To what price, that depends on the scale of the inflation – and we know that inflation will continue.

Gold price forecasts 2013:-

Forecast by	Forecasted Gold Rate in Ounce	Converted Rate per 10 gm in Rs/-	Year
BNP Paribas	2280 $	38635 Rs/-	2013
Thomson Reuters GFMS	2000 $	33890 Rs/-	2013
Morgan Stanley	2175 $	36856 Rs/-	2013
Newmont Mining	2500 $	42363 Rs/-	2013
Standard Chartered	2000 $	33890 Rs/-	2013
Standard Chartered	2107 $	35703 Rs/-	2014

Some forecast may seem to be speculations but one thing is for sure that from here gold price are intended to appreciate more. This may be due to economic uncertainties, unfortunately the global financial problems are not yet sorted out, you might have heard about bad financial situation about Europe and other western countries. This may cause gold price to rise further.
 

 

 

Why Real Estate is still America’s Best Investment

If you believe the latest headlines, the economy fluctuates from recovery to ruin on a weekly basis. In reality, real estate is cyclical, and the market is on its way to recovery in most areas. Although you may feel nervous about home ownership, property is still your best long-term investment.  In more than two-thirds of the country, housing affordability has dipped to pre-housing bubble levels, creating opportunities for those looking for a bargain. Home prices are expected to rise in 2013 due to fewer distressed sales and the impending housing shortage.
Mortgage rates have decreased over the last fifty years to record lows.
Due to the economic downturn, borrowers with stellar credit and a solid employment history are best able to secure financing right now. However, as conditions improve, the market will expand for borrowers who may not fit the mold of traditional lending standards, such as the self-employed.
Values Still Historically High
Economist Robert J. Shiller has researched and outlined American housing prices for standard existing homes from 1890 to present, adjusting values to today’s dollars. Although home values have hovered close to the $100,000 mark for the better part of the century, they began to escalate in the late 1990s and into the new millennium, fueling the real estate bubble.  The median home price is 3.4 times the median household income. While this is 20.9% lower than the average from 1995-2010, it’s more in line with the average from 1980-2000.
Home Equity
A major advantage of home ownership is building equity. The average seller who purchased a home in 2002 gained 24% in equity, while those who purchased their homes 11 to 15 years ago had a median gain of 40%.
The Real State of American Real Estate

• Despite a decline, home values are still at historically high levels.
• More people own homes now than ever before.
• Mortgage interest rates are at the lowest level in 30 years.
• Property is more affordable now than it has been in 40 years.⁷
• One in three Americans own their homes free and clear.⁴
• 91.2% of mortgages are current—and only 3.75% are in foreclosure.^8,9
• 87% of Americans who bought a home in the past year expect to easily meet their mortgage repayment obligations in the next year.^9,10
• Two-thirds of Americans say that now is the best time to buy

New Record High for Gold by Early 2013, Says Nichols

“We believe gold will move significantly higher by year-end or early 2013, possibly recording a new all-time high in the next three to four months – thereby rewarding those intrepid investors holding on to or augmenting their gold positions despite the short-term vagaries of the gold market.”
The above commentary came from the most recent piece by Jeffrey Nichols, Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors.  Nichols, who has been bullish on gold for the majority of the past decade, provided his latest thoughts on the yellow metal in light of its weakness thus far in October.

Nonetheless, Nichols went on to say that “With little new monetary policy initiatives expected from the Fed in the next few months, the financial markets – including the market for gold – are shifting attention to the upcoming U.S. Presidential and Congressional elections – trying to discern the election outcomes and their implications for the economy and the markets.”
“I can tell you this much: Whatever the election results, recession-like economic conditions – or worse – will continue to plague the U.S. and global economies for years to come,” he added.  “It took years, if not decades, for the United States and most other major economies to accumulate massive and unsustainable levels of public- and private-sector debt.”

“As gold tumbled in recent days, short-term market psychology has, not surprisingly, turned increasingly gloomy – suggesting gold could possibly go lower before staging an inevitable recovery and renewed assault at the $1800 level,” he noted.

 As a result, Nichols concluded by noting that “As we are now witnessing, spending, whether by governments or households, cannot continue without access to credit. So, we must ask ourselves realistically, who will continue to lend to already bankrupt borrowers?  Only each nation’s central bank.  That’s exactly what increasingly rapid monetary expansion (aka quantitative easing) is all about – but its eventual result will be rising inflation, currency debasement, and much higher gold prices.”

2012: The year of a housing turnaround?

Improved employment figures and record home affordability levels could spawn a minor housing recovery this year, analyst Mark Fleming said Wednesday in the CoreLogic ($23.80 0.68%) MarketPulse report.
The Freddie report says economic growth will strengthen by 2.1% in the first quarter of 2012, while mortgage rates will remain low at least through the beginning of the year. In addition, the Freddie Mac survey predicts home sales will grow another 2% to 5% from 2011.
Fleming with CoreLogic says several other developments could spur along housing demand. One of those being the number of households paying off debts — a factor that creates more liquidity and access to credit. Furthermore, households started adding home equity lines of credit in the third quarter of 2011, bringing in more access to cash flow and suggesting borrowers and lenders are more confident.
He believes 2012 is the right time for a housing price rebound with affordability levels putting a floor on the market, barring further price declines.
Fleming says economic concerns peaked in the summer of 2011 when politicians were stuck wrangling over the nation's debt ceiling and the economy seemed poised for stagnation.
Fast-forward a few months, and Fleming says conditions are better, making way for a possible recovery in 2012. Fleming's more optimistic outlook is mirrored in the Freddie Mac U.S. Economic and Housing Market Outlook survey for the month of January.
With this in mind, Fleming said analysts will be watching the market closely in search of positive signs during the spring and summer selling seasons.
His report noted that "most housing statistics basically moved sideways in the latter part of 2011. Builder sentiment is improving ever so slowly, but remains at very low levels. Housing starts are also increasing, driven mostly by multifamily starts."

Silver Is A Better Investment Than Gold

Gold investing has long dominated the precious metals space, as investors have used this ultra-popular metal as both a trading/speculative instrument as well as an integral part of a longer term strategy. While silver still has a large presence in the financial world, it is not often that a big name steps into the limelight and touts this white metal over its gold counterpart.
Jim Rogers is easily one of the most famous investors of all time. His astounding track record has led him to become one of the most successful traders ever, earning deep respect throughout the financial world. Better yet, Rogers is not the least bit shy about speaking his mind, whether he is right or wrong. Some of his previous statements included the fact that anyone who doesn't invest in commodities is a fool, that gold will surely drop 20% from its current levels, and now, Rogers has stated that silver is a better investment than gold.
Rogers' Reasoning
Rogers noted that for the time being, silver presents itself as a better play, as it has been a slightly better performer over the past five years. "Consider this: Silver is the only major commodity not to have reached a new all-time high in this bull market; silver is still cheaper than it was 32 years ago, prices are astonishingly depressed" writes Peter Cooper. Also, historically, gold has a history of being worth anywhere from 12 to 15 times silver; that figure is currently showing gold as being roughly 50 times more valuable than its counterpart metal.
Rogers also urges that silver's volatility may make it the perfect option come fall when it is widely expected that the Fed will be announcing yet another quantitative easing program that could create a mad rush into silver. Of course, that is not to say that it will not be a bumpy road along the way. Silver has not maintained quite the composure of gold through the years, as it is known to exhibit massive movements, so the next few months will likely be more of the same.
Ways to Play
For those looking to ride the coat tails of one of the world's most successful investors, we outline several ways to play the metal.

• Silver Miners ETF (SIL): A fund that dedicates its assets to firms who mine the actual metal.
• iShare Silver Trust (SLV): This physically-backed ETF has over $8.5 billion in assets and is an investor favorite, trading more than 7.7 million times each day. This fund will allow for investors to use options to make appropriate bets.
• Silver Wheaton (SLW): A mining/streaming company that has been an investor favorite for quite some time. This is a good option for those looking to single out a particular firm.
• Futures: Of course, you can always utilize the wide variety of futures contracts listed on the COMEX, LME, MCX, and more.

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

Here is that chart updated to today's readings:

Gold's decline has approached an area where you can expect support. More importantly, when/if Gold gets hammered through the first 2 supports, you can see that the SUPER SUPPORT should be bought with both hands. My initial analysis showed a primary target much higher (in chart below), but we haven't had a washout (that we hope for) and should we experience one, the blood in the street should be bought.

:

With the recent weakness in both Gold and the S&P 500, one would expect the miners to be falling out of bed. However, they have held up very well as can be seen in the above ratio chart:

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

In the WIR last weekend, I stated I was bullish but cautious, and would not hesitate to move out of long positions if the market dropped further. Yesterday we sold out of more than 25% of our long positions and added about 20% cash. As for our Guidance and Risk Management System results, the only holdings that the system has unacceptably ranked are some precious metals stocks plus IBM. In the latter, traders were blind-sided. It's a position we are, for now, forced to hold, rather than trade. We are now just over 50% long and down to 19 positions only. Today looks more positive for equities, commodities and possibly precious metals. I continue to believe that investors, not speculators, have a good opportunity at present to buy the precious metals -- both the bullion and the stocks.

Yesterday, Bill wrote that the President was boasting about devaluing the US Dollar during the debate as a way to make the US competitive in the global market place. This process has been going on in the majority of countries for years and is why gold has been trading like a currency and not a commodity - it just takes some talking heads a very long time to figure this out. Gold is going much, much higher due to this global process and each day there are additional large money managers figuring this out and getting on board the gold bull. The bull will end when the large money is offing precious metals and precious metal stocks to the public at much higher prices. We are nowhere near that time.

Recently, I have been writing about a short-term drop in price in order to reset sentiment and allow the price of gold to rise to new highs.

The following chart on Public Sentiment on Gold was updated on sentimentrader.com. I believe that it was done prior to yesterdays decline so I assume that public opinion moved even lower than is shown here:

That is what we were looking for, but it is not as low as I would like to have a real washout, but it is getting there.

If we get that decline in gold, we will see a final washout setting up the perfect launching pad directly in the timing band for a low. This will occur when the seasonal strong period is starting (end of October) due to the Indian wedding season. That would be an absolute gift!

Here is the Running Chart on Gold:

Here is the same chart drawn as a line chart for more clarity:

As you can see, price has moved very close to the projected area. Although we do not yet have the washout hoped for, one could make an argument to start to add to precious metals positions now - depending on your timeframe.

At the beginning of October, I posted the following chart showing 2 possible scenarios, one in blue, the other in green. It turns out that the higher probability one (green) has been working out. This chart is close enough for a partial buy, imo, but you must be ready to take some heat.

This simple chart of the HUI also looks constructive, I think its self explanatory:

Should near-term weakness in stocks and commodities occur, the Trade of the Generation will be hot once again. As money flees into bonds, they should be sold into that strength and gold should be bought.

Trade of Generation:

The bottom line is that we have entered the time to start to get long precious metal stocks. There are additional areas to add - either into weakness or if breakouts occur. I suspect more very short-term downside is in front of us, but you definitely do not want to be out of the market when the rally begins in earnest.

Bill Cara's Blog

CTA Trading Desk Morning Report

[7:00am ET] Good morning.

Cara 2013 Toronto Conference announcement

The Cara Toronto 2013 Conference will be held over three days, Friday to Sunday lunch, September 13-15. The meetings room hotel has not yet been selected, but special room rates will be obtained at that hotel as well as at the Strathcona Hotel. For those who wish to arrive a day earlier, Bill Cara will be organizing a full day of discussions with exhibitors at the Cambridge Toronto Resources Show at the Sheraton Centre.

The speakers are expected once again to be Bill Cara, Geoff Goetz, Vad Graifer, Deron Wagner, Marc Farmer, and Harp Singh plus Stephen Wellman and at least one other. Geoff and Vad will participate in real-time trading on September 13. Vad will demonstrate the Reality Trader system while Geoff will introduce and have an in-depth discussion of the Cara 100 Guidance and Risk Management System. Many of the speakers will have pre-taped video presentations to be followed by live Q&A. An on-site electronics technician will ensure the program runs smoothly and that we have more time next year for Q&A. Those presentations will be available by remote access for those who are unable to attend in person.

Also, rather than have restaurant dinners this year, by popular request we are going to have pub food at the Strathcona on Friday and Saturday evenings. Lunches on Friday and Saturday will be a LA’s (again) and Volos, the sister restaurant across the street at York and Richmond, which will be close to the meetings room hotel. The farewell luncheon on Sunday will be adjacent to the meetings room, and then attendees will be able to get away early for out-of-town departures. A special rate from the hugely popular Porter Air will be available again next year.

We believe that the 5th Cara Conference will be by far the biggest and the best. A brochure will be posted on the website in the next few weeks after the full agenda has been finalized. The dates, however, are final, and so we hope to see you there September 13-15.